Myanmar is in turmoil since the military took control of the country on February 1, 2021 and detained Aung San Suu Kyi and officials from her National League for Democracy (NLD) party. Myanmar’s neighbours including Cambodia, Thailand and the Philippines have called these developments an “internal matter” of Myanmar. India issued a statement that said, “India has always been steadfast in its support to the process of democratic transition in Myanmar. We believe that the rule of law and the democratic process must be upheld.” The Myanmar military has declared a year-long emergency and has promised to hold a “free and fair” election once the state of emergency is over.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres described the developments in Myanmar a “serious blow to democratic reforms”. Notably, China blocked a UN Security Council statement condemning the military coup. For Beijing, the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) is another strategic highway to the Indian Ocean after the CPEC in Pakistan. That is why China has been opposing any international intervention in Myanmar, while offering itself to negotiate with disputing parties ‘within’ Myanmar – obviously to ensure the outcome is in synch with Chinese national interests.
However, there has been severe condemnation by several countries. US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken tweeted: “The United States expresses grave concern regarding reports the Burmese military has detained multiple civilian government and civil society leaders. The military must reverse these actions immediately.” Blinken perhaps in unaware Burma changed its name to Myanmar in 1989. America and UK have responded with sanctions on Myanmar’s military officials. US President Joe Biden gave legal authority to US officials for indefinitely blocking Myanmar’s military’s efforts to move some $1 billion from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) in the US to Myanmar – freezing the funds.
Australia has suspended its defence cooperation program with Myanmar amid concern about the escalating violence and rising death toll although Australia’s bilateral defence ties with Myanmar’s military are restricted to non-combat areas. Marise Ann Payne, Australia’s Foreign Affairs Minister has stated, “We continue to strongly urge the Myanmar security forces to exercise restraint and refrain from violence against civilians.”
Reports of growing violence in Myanmar are disturbing amidst the ongoing civil disobedience movement. Over 67 protesters have reportedly been killed in police firing, some 38 on March 3 alone. There are reports of over 17,000 people having been detained between February 1 and March7. There are media reports of detainees being tortured. One NLD leader has reportedly died in custody. Night raids have been carried out in Yangon and other cities against leaders of the civil disobedience movement on March 6. Myanmar has asked India to return eight Myanmar police officials who have crossed the border with their families seeking refuge in India.
The situation appears to be deteriorating with Myanmar’s major trade unions calling on members to shut down the economy from March 8 to exert more pressure on the military government in face of what was mentioned as police brutalities. An alliance of nine unions signaled they planned a full extended shutdown of the economy by issuing a joint statement saying, “To continue economic and business activities as usual…will only benefit the military as they repress the energy of the Myanmar people. The time to take action in defence of our democracy is now.”
Amidst all this turmoil, the Rohingya repatriation from Bangladesh is to be undertaken. As per news reports of March 8, envoys of Japan, Australia, and the US visited the Cox Bazaar camps in Bangladesh, housing nearly a million Rohingya refugees. The delegation also met with Bangladeshi officials and international organizations assisting the refugee communities there and extended their strong support to them. According to Naoki Ito, Japanese ambassador to Bangladesh, “This joint mission with an intention to further promote their support for the government of Bangladesh and strengthen cooperation with international organizations and NGOs.”
The geostrategic location of Myanmar attracts much international attention. In January 2021, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu visited Naypyitaw to discuss military and military-technical cooperation as well as the situation in the Asia-Pacific Region. The turmoil in Myanmar adversely affects India. Myanmar’s location is geopolitically significant to India as it stands at the centre of the India-Southeast Asia geography and India’s Act East Policy (AEP). Myanmar shares a 1,624 km border with India and is crucial to the India-Myanmar-Thailand (IMT) Highway under construction, connecting Moreh in India with Mae Sot in Thailand via Myanmar.
In addition is the Kaladan multimodal connectivity project that connects India’s Mizoram state to Sittwe port in Rakhine province in Myanmar. Currently, there are some 100 Indian companies in Myanmar with investments over $1.2 billion. In October 2020, India announced it would invest $6 billion to construct a petroleum refinery in Thanlyn region near Yangon when Army Chief General MM Naravane and Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla had visited Myanmar. A big concern for India is security along the India-Myanmar border which is largely open due to common ethnic groups on both sides. This enables arms and narcotics snuggling as well as cross border movement of insurgents and terrorists.
China reiterated on March 7 that it is prepared to engage with “all parties” to ease the crisis and is not taking sides. But the fact remains that China thrives on crisis and instability in other countries, as it is doing in Afghanistan. In Myanmar, Beijing has a Sword of Damocles hanging over Naypyitaw by supporting, funding and arming insurgents and terrorist organizations in Myanmar in conjunction Pakistan and its proxies. These include the United Wa State Army (USWA), the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) whose leader is a Pakistani national, and the United Liberation Front of West and Southeast Asia (ULFWSEA) configured under the tutelage of Chinese intelligence. Under cover of assisting repatriation of Rohingyas from Bangladesh to Myanmar, China is also tightening its grip on the Kachin state which is crucial for the CMEC.
If the situation does not stabilize and Myanmar is hit with sanctions, it will become difficult for Indian companies to operate there. Indian investment in Myanmar, the IMT Highway and the Kaladan multimodal project too will be adversely affected. In such a situation, Beijing will step in and draw Myanmar more into its strategic sphere, which will not be good for regional stability. With China’s sub-conventional hold over Myanmar, civil militia’s joining hands against the military will be fully exploited by China. Hopefully, better sense will prevails and Myanmar returns to normalcy in an early timeframe.
