“China can have only one ally : China itself. China can only have one set of interests: pro China ones. Chinese foreign policy is utterly devoid of altruism.”
You have started a war that hasn’t gone to plan. You’re up to your eyeballs in sanctions, and now the International Criminal Court has issued an arrest warrant for war crimes with your name on it. It’s at times like this you need a friend. Enter Xi Jinping.
—Steve Rosenberg , Russia Editor
The Russia-Ukraine war is into its second year impacting the economies across the board as well as threat to world peace due to its nuclear calculus. The war has set in motion a new version of cold war with proponents seemingly divided into two groups, albeit quasi informal as of now. The US lead western world is generally aligned against Russia and her allies, overt as well as silent ones. Political control over Ukraine happens to be central to the emerging geo political shift with high passions by the rival forces. Apropos, this war needs to be ended at the earliest before matter reaches point of no return.
China, in current scenario, seem to be looking at the strategic space in offing due to US diversion towards Ukraine, and Russia clearly on back foot due to war stress.
It was during SCO meet at Samarkand last year when Indian Prime Minister told President Putin that “ It is not an era of war”. It was most sensible expression in contemporary times to bring about end to senseless death and destruction to resolve the contentious issues. This sentiment has gone on to become the Mantra for way forward in varied ongoing conflicts, Ukraine war being top on the agenda. There has been a flurry of diplomatic discussions in varied multinational forums seeking ways to end the Russia-Ukraine war. The war continues unabated with its shadow looming large by the day.
There are neutral and influential countries that may make it possible to bring the warring parties to the table. India, Brazil, Indonesia and few other countries are in talks with both Russia and Ukraine to end the war. While there are positive signs, these diplomatic overtures have not made a tangible breakthrough in face of political intransigence. China, off late, is seen to be another entrant in the ongoing peace efforts. It certainly reinforces the global sentiments, although her motives are difficult to gauge.
China, in current scenario, seem to be looking at the strategic space in offing due to US diversion towards Ukraine, and Russia clearly on back foot due to war stress. China is perceived to be supporting Russia, whereas she has been conspicuously quiet publicly all through the war and followed a neutral stance. China with her strategic stature and influence over Russia certainly is in a position to nudge her to see the reason to end the war.
The Chinese President XI Jinping was in Moscow recently , a normal state visit by all accounts by a head of state to another friendly nation. Whereas, it was different from the usual diplomatic outreach due to its timings as related to Russo-Ukraine war. The Chinese President is reported to have discussed a peace plan with the President Putin. On the face of it , there is an air of positivity with hope of ushering in much needed peace in the region. At the same time speculations of possibility of military support to Russia by a friend with ‘No Limits’ cannot be ruled out.
If it happens, then it would indeed convey a coercive message to Ukraine and her western supporters. It may go either way in resolving, or continuation of the conflict. Apropos, actual Chinese intents cannot be assessed till it further unfolds and reaches some conclusions. Expecting a philanthropic indulgence from China may be unrealistic looking at her pattern of political conduct. China is expected to orchestrate political moves that suits her own national ambitions and interests.
The realization that Ukraine has nothing to gain at the end of the day, probably has made them convey their willingness to consider Chinese plan.
Notwithstanding such a calculus mired in mixed speculations, if China manages to bring the warring nations to negotiating table, it would be the best thing to happen. China has ideological affinity and political convergence with Russia, hence a window exists to convince Russia to agree at least for a cease fire. Ukraine had tabled a peace proposal in G 20 meet in Bali in September 2022 that shows that she is open to negotiations. Ukraine possibly cannot ignore prospects of resuscitation of Russian arsenal in eventuality of outright refusal of Chinese moves. The President of Ukraine is known to have shown interest and spoken at length with the Chinese President. Consequent to these talks, China has earmarked an interlocutor who will be visiting Ukraine soon for further discussions.
The realization that Ukraine has nothing to gain at the end of the day, probably has made them convey their willingness to consider Chinese plan. The major issue after one year of military confrontation is that Russia is not a winner and Ukraine has not lost the battle. The war fatigue has surely set in and what matters now is who blinks first. In such a stalemate situation. Both sides need a credible mutually acceptable moderator to initiate the process of reconciliation. China seems to be that catalyst and there is a visible move forward.
The western world is the instigator of this conflict wherein Ukraine has been their proxy frontline player. Accordingly, US and her allies would obviously be reluctant to stop the war as the hype of NATO as the strongest military group would get exposed. Moreover, acceptance of Chinese brokered peace, in whatever format, would be a setback to their political investment as it may turn out to be in favour of Russia. China, on other hand, would score high credits towards her global leadership role, a matter of compulsive discomfort for US.
In consequence, Ukraine may be prompted not to reconcile until Russia withdraws from the occupied areas. This was the one of the main conditions of Ukrainian Bali peace proposal which had backing of large number of nations. This condition also draws strength from UN charter that stipulates respect of territorial integrity of the member states. Ukraine cannot ignore the fact that the much promised membership of NATO, has not come about despite so much of loss of life and property. Therefore, the chances of her acceptance of a cease fire as a first step in present circumstances cannot be ruled out.
Another perspective is that this war was started by the west and now they do not know how to stop it. Therefore, possibility of neutrality by the west for sake of super ordinate objective of global peace may well be a face saver. By such an approach they would retain high pedestal in retracing their steps, besides flexibility to change stance, if so required. Moreover , the ground realities prompt that the economic sanctions on Russia and war effort has impacted the European nations in a substantial way. There are muted voices from the civil society in number of European nations against their national polity for perpetuation of this war. Hence, need of relook at the entire scenario afresh.
The military situation as it stands today is that both the countries have depleted their resources to continue the war fighting.
Russia having failed to convince the west and Ukraine not the disturb the status quo, lost strategic patience and took matters in her hands. Russia as on date is in occupation of territories required to counter threat from NATO and domination of sea space for economic and military purposes. Russia is unlikely to move back from occupied areas having invested so much in a year long war plus the intentions of the west would always be suspect.
The military situation as it stands today is that both the countries have depleted their resources to continue the war fighting. The fact that operations at Bakmut are being conducted by mercenaries by Russia speaks of paucity to regular troops and resources. Russia probably has committed her regular troops to hold on to the vast tracks captured by them in Donbas as well as coastal regions.. Accordingly, it may well be Russia that has prompted China to initiate talks while Russia is still in a position of strength.
Ukraine on other hand is holding on to Bakhmut and reported to be planning an offensive to dislodge Russians from selected tactically important areas. If they succeed then Ukraine is unlikely to stop with continuous supply of military hardware from her supporters. The recent drone attack on Kremlin is indicative of attempts to instigate Russia to retaliate. it also shows the imprints of west in ongoing jockeying for acquiring position of strength prior to any talks.
China is certainly looking at opportunities of geo political, economic and diplomatic import in current situation. Economically , there is a huge potential to make money in reconstruction and rehabilitation of Ukraine which has to be literally rebuilt from scratch. China with her structural strength alongside newly earned goodwill is likely to be the major participant in this process. Geo politically, China has already achieved a diplomatic success in bringing about Saudi Arab and Iran to patch up their differences. As a result, China has secured high as a peace maker as against US that is known more for initiating conflicts. China, accordingly, is seen to be improving her image as a responsible state neutralizing negative perceptions as espoused by the western narratives.
Overall, China has a lot to gain in geo political power play in case they manage to bring Russia and Ukraine to table and make them agree to even an interim solution.
Non participation of NATO nations directly against a nuclear state would also hold good in case of Chinese designs on Taiwan. Moreover, China-Russia combine post Ukraine episode would be a formidable challenge to deter US in her activism in Indo-Pacific and other theatres. Such a take away may embolden China in her hegemonic designs of her purported claims over land and sea space. In that, India would be directly impacted as China may up the ante by coercive military overtures on the borders.
Overall, China has a lot to gain in geo political power play in case they manage to bring Russia and Ukraine to table and make them agree to even an interim solution.
In the current situation, there seems to be not much of choice even with the west to stop the process of reconciliation under Chinese patronage. As long as the war comes to an end, it would be a great service to the humanity and world peace. It may also turn out to be a precedence to prompt China to be more accommodating and according preference to cooperation instead of confrontation in her political conduct. Let it be the optimistic thought in hope of early resolution to Russia- Ukraine war.