Role of the IAF: In Possible Conflagration in Ladakh

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By Air Marshal Anil Chopra Published on February 14, 2023 11:34 am
Landing Of C 17 At Arunacha
Role of the IAF: In Possible Conflagration in Ladakh - © Indian Defence Review

Aerospace is now the dominant means of prosecution of operations in all domains. The requirement of air superiority remains highly desirable. “If we lose the war in the air, we lose the war and lose it quickly”, said Field Marshal Bernard Montgomery. Undoubtedly, the one who controls the aerospace, controls the planet. There is a need to exploit air power’s speed, range, lethality, accuracy and flexibility in Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) environment. There is a need for Effects-Based Operations (EBO). With long range sensors and weapons, the engagements would be from longer distances. Space-based elements will support Situational Awareness (SA), communications, navigation and targeting for all air and surface operations. Counter air and counter surface force missions will require precision. Fixed and rotary wing aircraft will be important for inter and intra theatre mobility. Unmanned systems are permeating into all operational roles. Autonomous systems and Manned Unmanned Teaming (MUMT) will see many developments. Armies and navies across the globe are investing more and more in the air element.

As the Ukraine conflict extends beyond seven months, the myth that wars of the future will be short and swift has been broken. With very large asymmetric military advantage over Ukraine, Russia was expected to overrun the country quickly. Clearly, that is not happening. Ukrainian resolve backed by steady supply of Western arms and funds has helped Ukraine in not only slowing or halting Russian advance, but has also inflicted significant damage and losses including the flagship cruiser Moskva. The war of attrition continues.

China is watching the Ukraine conflict closely. India has the second-largest standing armed forces after China. India is among the five top economies and the fourth largest military power. The two Asian giants India and China had a major face-off in the Galwan region of Ladakh on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in May-June 2020. Aggressive skirmishes resulted in significant loss of lives on both sides. Ever since the face-off in Galwan, 16 rounds of military level talks between India and China have taken place. Finally, on September 08, 2022, the two sides announced that their frontline troops have kicked off disengagement from Patrol Point-15 in Gogra Hot Springs area. Earlier disengagement had been completed on both the banks of Pangong Tso and Galwan.

The world now awaits the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) which will elect the 20th Central Committee. It will begin mid-October 2022. Xi Jinping is expected to be re-elected as the General Secretary. Xi’s re-election would mean continued assertive foreign policy. Comparisons between Indian and Chinese armed forces are constantly being made.

Revolution in Aerospace Power

Aerospace is now the dominant means of prosecution of operations in all domains. The requirement of air superiority remains highly desirable. “If we lose the war in the air, we lose the war and lose it quickly”, said Field Marshal Bernard Montgomery. Undoubtedly, the one who controls the aerospace, controls the planet. There is a need to exploit air power’s speed, range, lethality, accuracy and flexibility in Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) environment. There is a need for Effects-Based Operations (EBO). With long range sensors and weapons, the engagements would be from longer distances. Space-based elements will support Situational Awareness (SA), communications, navigation and targeting for all air and surface operations. Counter air and counter surface force missions will require precision. Fixed and rotary wing aircraft will be important for inter and intra theatre mobility. Unmanned systems are permeating into all operational roles. Autonomous systems and Manned Unmanned Teaming (MUMT) will see many developments. Armies and navies across the globe are investing more and more in the air element.

The 21st century operations, especially command and control, are increasingly networked and therefore, offensive and defensive Cyber Warfare (CW) capability has become important. Electronic Warfare (EW) is becoming more sophisticated. Hypersonic platforms and weapon technologies are becoming disruptive technologies. Hypersonic Cruise Missiles (HCM) and Hypersonic Glide Vehicles (HGV) are entering military inventories. HCMs have been used in the recent past in the war in Ukraine. Directed Energy Weapons (DEWs) are evolving quickly and will deliver immediate results at the speed of light. They will greatly reduce the logistics complexities of munitions stocking. Irregular warfare is here to stay. Information Warfare and Influence Operations (IWIO) will transcend operational timelines and will be a “no-war no-peace” phenomenon. Air will have a great role in irregular warfare. The United States (US) has used air power extensively against terror. As operations would have to be conducted simultaneously in all domains, nations need have to build Multi-Domain Operations (MDO) capabilities. Lastly, an important aspect of international influence and diplomacy will be the Humanitarian Aid and Disaster Relief (HADR) and air power will be the first responder.

Air Power Lessons from Ukraine

The importance of Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) has been reinforced. Suppression of Enemy Air Defences (SEAD) is crucial to achieve air superiority. Airborne Early Warning and Control (AEW&C) capability is very important for monitoring and controlling the air and surface battles. Tanks and logistics convoys are highly vulnerable to anti-tank attacks from the air, including by using loitering munitions or kamikaze drones. Man-portable air-defence weapons are easy to conceal and are very effective against low flying aircraft. Chaff and IR flare protection are crucial for airborne platforms. Precision weapons are very important, more so in urban warfare. Cruise missiles are capable of long-distance targeting and will be required in large numbers. Extended wars require munitions stocking and also indigenous production capabilities. Large ships and aircraft carriers will be vulnerable to a multiple cruise missile attack and would need to be defended with adequate AD weapons and safety of distance. Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) are a powerful weapon platform in an uncontested environment, but can be highly vulnerable against strong defences.

Any and every think can be weaponised. This could be financial isolation, freezing investments, critical component supply chains, blockades, social media, sporting events, energy supplies, electric power and much more. War losses take time to be replaced. Indigenous capacities have to be built.

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Air Delivers Strategic Effects

Air power is inherently strategic in nature and best used as an offensive element. It provides conventional deterrence. Air Campaigns can be executed simultaneously against different spread out target systems. It can provide both kinetic and non-kinetic options with pinpoint accuracy. Precision air weapons have redefined the meaning of mass. Whoever controls the air, generally controls the surface. Air power influences outcomes and actions of the surface forces. Technology and air power are integrally and synergistically related. The Indian Air Force (IAF) is responsible for air defence of India. The IAF’s Counter Air missions are designed to ensure defence of India and of the nation’s surface forces. The IAF’s strategic airlift capability allows strategic reach and strategic effects. Advantage of air power is the ability to exploit swing-role capabilities. When you say Rafale is an Omni Role fighter, means it can do many roles in a single mission. Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) has become even more crucial for decision-superiority in net-centric warfare. Air power is best suited for all this and much more.

The Emerging PLAAF

With the support of the indigenous industry which is producing all genres of aerial platforms, the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) is fast acquiring top-end systems and weapons of global class and reach. There is much greater emphasis on modern technologies including stealth, hypersonic, Artificial Intelligence (AI), cyber, Electronic Warfare (EW) and long range missiles. The PLAAF also re-oriented its flying training and tactics and there is much higher emphasis on realistic exercises. The PLAAF has made major changes in its operational doctrine based on global reach requirements. Air defence of critical assets; long-range offensive precision strikes; integrated battlefield support missions; ISR; information operations and strategic air-transport reach are a priority. Integration of air and space will support both offensive and defensive operations. The PLAAF is preparing for hybrid network-centric war and is trying to increase exposure to air exercises to compensate for low actual war exposure. The PLAAF is closing the gap with Western air forces across a broad spectrum of capabilities, such as aircraft performance, command and control and Electronic Warfare (EW).

Air Assets of the PLAAF

The PLAAF is the largest air force in the region and the third largest in the world, with nearly 1,700 combat aircraft of which, nearly 800 are fourth generation-plus. Nearly 50 fifth-generation J-20 stealth fighters have been inducted. Second stealth aircraft, J-31 development is being hastened. The PLAAF operates nearly 750 J-7 variants, 100 J-8s, 465 J-10s, 225 J-11 air superiority fighter variants, 52 Russian Su-27s, 73 Russian Su-30 MKK multi-role aircraft, 24 Russian Su-35S and 176 H-6 jet bomber variants. The extended-range H-6K variant can carry six air-launched cruise missiles. They also have 20 IL-76 jet transport aircraft and around 90 smaller propeller transport aircraft. They have three IL-78 MD/TD Russian jet aerial tankers and eight Tu-154M Jet patrol/ELINT aircraft. The AEW&C aircraft fleet on the inventory include KJ-200 and KJ-500 turbo-props and KJ-2000 jets. The PLAAF has a variety of indigenous and Russian helicopters of Z-8/9/10 and Mi-17 class. Meanwhile, newer Z-18 and Z-20 are under induction. The PLA has a much larger rotary wing force. The PLAAF has approximately 59 fighter/ground attack brigades with operational theatre commands. Each Brigade reportedly has 24 aircraft. Each bomber regiment has 18 aircraft. The PLAAF also has a large number of indigenous Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) of global standards. Many of these are Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles (UCAV) as they carry armaments.

The PLAAF is developing new long-range stealth bomber H-20 to strike regional and global targets. It will probably reach initial operational capability no sooner than 2025. China has inducted around 20 Y-20 large transport aircraft that can lift up to 66 tons. The new variants are planned to support airborne command and control, logistics, para-drop, aerial refuelling and strategic reconnaissance operations. The PLA Navy (PLAN) has two operational aircraft carriers and nearly 600 aircraft. Two more carriers are under construction and two further, larger ones, are on drawings board. China thus has significant air power.

Chinese Aerial Weapons

China is developing a large number of aerial precision munitions. These include, IR/TV guided Air to Surface Missiles (ASM) and Anti-Radiation Missiles (ARM), laser and satellite-guided bombs. The Beyond Visual Range (BVR) Air-to-Air missiles (AAM) include the PL-12 and PL-21. The PL-15, a very long range AAM, is equipped with an Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar. China has around 500 DH-10 land attack cruise missiles with a 1,500-km range and part of these is air launched. The PLAAF has many advanced long range SAM systems, and these include the Russian S-300, S-400 and the indigenously produced HQ-9.

PLAAF Facing Indian Border

The PLAAF’s air assets opposite the Indian border across Himalayas include one fighter brigade each of J-11AB, J-7, J-7E and J-16 aircraft. There is a transport regiment each of Y-8/Y-9 and Y-7 aircraft. There is a regiment of helicopters and one SAM brigade at Lhasa. Deeper at Urumqi Base, there is a fighter brigade each of J-8H, J-11A/B and JH-7A. Su-30s, J-10s and J-20 have been operating detachments in the area. Fighters carry out regular exercises in the sector. The airfields are being upgraded with hardened shelters and the ability to host more assets. Nearly eleven airfields in Tibet and Xinjiang can be used for operations against India. More are under construction.

PLAAF Operational Training and Exercises

The PLAAF believes in long-range offensive precision-strikes using enablers such as FRA and AWACS. There will be coordination with the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF). The PLAAF has multi-layered air defence systems. China’s extensive constellation of satellites with short revisit cycles, greatly support surveillance and targeting. The PLAAF gives greater importance to information, electronic and cyber warfare and also coordinates closely with the PLA Strategic Support Force (PLASSF). The PLAAF’s regular exercises include large force engagements with the PLA and the PLA Navy. Their exercises in Tibet have increased. The PLAAF has annual Shaheen series exercises with the Pakistan Air Force (PAF). With 60 percent of the PAF being of Chinese origin, these exercises improve inter-operability that will be useful for coordinated operations against India.

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The IAF’s Current Broad Capabilities

The IAF has around 31 fighter squadrons which include two of Rafale, 12 Su-30 MKI, three MiG-21 Bison, three each of MiG-29 and Mirage 2000, six of Jaguar and two of Light Combat Aircraft (LCA). The Rafale aircraft is clearly superior to China’s J-10, J-11 and Su-27 fighter jets. Armed with long-range Meteor and MICA Beyond Visual Range (BVR) air-to-air missiles, the Rafale fighters are expected to pose a significant threat to Chinese aerial assets. The SCALP cruise missile and Hammer glide bombs have very high accuracy. The Rafale also has the best Electronic Warfare suite in the region. The Sukhoi Su-30MKI is the IAF’s primary air superiority fighter with the capability to perform long range air-to-ground strike missions. Mirage 2000 and the MiG-29 have all been upgraded. With 12 C-17 and C-130 each, 17 IL-76 and over a hundred upgraded An-32, the IAF has significant global reach with cargo and troop lift capability.

Similarly, having inducted 15 Boeing Chinook heavy-lift and 22 Apache AH-64E attack helicopters and with already a significant fleet of 240 Mi-17 series medium-lift helicopters and nearly 100 ALH variants and smaller Chetak/Cheetah fleet, the IAF is in a good position for rotary wing assets. The IAF has only three large AWACS aircraft and two indigenous DRDO developed ‘Netra’ AEW&C aircraft. Similarly, the IAF has only six IL-78 Flight Refueling Aircraft (FRA). Both these fleet need augmentation for a continental size country like India which has also to cover the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).

India has a good chain of integrated radars to support network-centric offensive and defensive operations. However, there are more gap fillers required in the Himalayas. The IAF’s legacy surface-to-air missile systems such as the SAM-3 Pechora and SAM 8 OSA-AK are being upgraded. With the induction of a large number of indigenous Akash AD systems and the already inducted five Russian S-400 systems from Russia, the AD coverage will be significant. To cover the large Chinese border, more systems are being inducted. With the induction of the MICA, Meteor, Astra, SCALP, BrahMos and Hammer missiles, among others, the IAF has a significant aerial weapons inventory. The future is unmanned. Artificial Intelligence supported autonomous systems will fly independently or in conjunction with each other in a swarm or with manned aircraft as a team. The IAF has Israeli Heron and Searcher Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) and Harpy and Harop Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles (UCAV). Orders for American Predator MQ-9 Reaper drones are expected. Indigenous drones and drone swarms are being inducted. India needs to develop and acquire many more.

The IAF’s Strategic Reach

The IAF is looking at reach from the Persian Gulf to the Straits of Malacca and the island territories up to Mauritius in the Indian Ocean, using long range aircraft supported by FRA and AWACS. More of these are being acquired. More airfields are becoming operational in the Southern peninsula and in Andaman and Nicobar Islands. This, along with in-flight refueling, will enhance the IAF’s reach. The Lakshadweep islands are also being developed strategically. The IAF is regularly exercising and increasing inter-operability with major air forces of the world.

IAF’s Operational Capabilities across the Himalayas

The IAF is very well placed with nearly 25 airfields in the border region capable of launching operations against China. China effectively has four airfields close to Eastern Ladakh and around seven in Tibet. They are trying to upgrade infrastructure but have the disadvantage of operating from airfields located at very high altitude. The IAF will be able to launch a much larger number of missions. For long, India’s military assets and infrastructure were Pakistan-centric. This is fast changing, for both infrastructure build up and assets positioning towards China. While border roads and connectivity are being improved, the IAF has upgraded its Advanced Landing Grounds (ALG) near the China border. All IAF airfields are getting hardened aircraft and equipment shelters. The IAF now has significant number of Su-30 MKI squadrons deployed against China. Also, new acquisitions such as the Rafale, C-130J, Chinook and Apache helicopters have also been located in the Eastern sector. The same is also applicable to air defence systems and weapons positioning.

Air Action across the Himalayas

Air campaigns can be executed simultaneously against different spread out target systems. China’s war plans are to launch an initial barrage of surface attack missiles to knock out critical Indian infrastructure including airfields. India would have to defend against such attacks with air defence weapons. The IAF would then have to achieve local sectoral air superiority. It must be remembered that the effect of neutralising just two Chinese airfields in each sector would have much more severe implications for them than if the same were to happen for India. The IAF should thus concentrate on neutralising PLAAF airfields using surface and air-launched missiles and build inventories accordingly.

Interdiction will pay high dividends in the mountains. Destroying a few bridges could throttle the logistics chains and supplies. Creating weapon-triggered landslides could block roads. Attacks against convoys on the very few roads available would create bottle-necks. Air can provide both kinetic and non-kinetic options with pin-point accuracy. It will influence outcomes and actions of the surface forces. It can simultaneously produce physical as well as psychological effects. Both, the fighter aircraft and attack helicopters will be employed for this. UCAVs would be used for interdiction, battlefield strikes and anti-tank and anti-personal operations. The transport and helicopter fleet would also provide the airlift of troops and military hardware inter and intra sector. Inter-valley transfers maybe required in changing the battle situation. The IAF has significant reach and capability on this count.

The radar cover has terrain related constraints in the mountains. However, there are also vantage points for their positioning. Yet, as much greater dependence would have to be on AWACS, their fleet strength will have to be enhanced. China has recently been experimenting with Aerostat Balloons for radar cover in the region. India has been using aerostats for many years and needs to reassess employment in Ladakh. Meanwhile, the IAF will use satellites and UAVs for ISR. Drones will also be a great asset for surveillance. India needs to invest more in autonomous aerial systems. Artificial Intelligence supported autonomous systems will fly independently or in conjunction with each other in a swarm or with manned aircraft as a team.

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The IAF will have to continue to transform from just being platform-based to being capability-based. Effects based, network-centric operations would be employed. The side that better employs electronic warfare and cyber means and tools will have advantage. Securing own networks and denying the same to the adversary will be important. Air and space platforms will greatly support cyber and electronic warfare operations much deeper into the enemy territory.

Joint Operations

For the surface and sub-surface forces campaign to succeed, a certain amount of dominance of the air is a prerequisite. The IAF would have to ensure that. Air interdiction missions will knock off the adversary’s tactical and logistic means. These will be very crucial in the mountains. Battlefield support missions by ground attack aircraft and attack helicopters will make the difference in the tactical battle area. The transport and helicopter fleet will provide logistics support which is crucial in the mountainous areas. The IAF has significant maritime attack capability and the reach to cover the entire region between the Gulf of Aden and the Malacca Strait.

The Two-Front Threat

India has serious boundary issues with both China and Pakistan and has fought wars with both of them. Today, China and Pakistan have deep strategic friendship. Nearly 60 percent of the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) is made up of Chinese aircraft. The JF-17 ‘Thunder’ is the starship joint programme. The PAF already has 130 of these but eventually, they could have nearly 300. China has recently transferred 25 J-10CE aircraft to the PAF that does jet training on Chinese designed K-8 trainers. Their AEW&C, FRAs and UAVs are of Chinese origin. They have commonality in armaments. The PLAAF and the PAF regularly carry out a series of flying training exercises called the Shaheen. Their inter-operability levels are high. Both have territorial interests in Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh. In case of Sino-Indian conflict, Pakistan could allow the use of its airbases to the PLAAF. It could also open another front. The Indian military will have to factor this aspect; the IAF will surely require larger numbers for this scenario.

Rebuilding IAF Numbers

The IAF is likely to have around 38 fighter squadrons by 2030. The target is to get to 42 squadrons by 2038. The end state could be 14 squadrons of Su-30 MKI, 14 squadrons of LCA variants, two of Rafale, six of the new fighter and six of Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA). Alternatively, the IAF may have to stretch the life of the Mirage and MiG-29 fleet. These figures are achievable as long as timely decisions are taken and there are no serious development delays in AMCA. The IAF must also target to have ten large and ten smaller AWACS, at least 12 FRA aircraft by 2030. The IAF requires additional UCAVs, including the indigenously developed DRDO’s TAPAS BH-201 and ‘Ghatak’. Acquisition of new platforms to make up for the ten deficient fighter squadrons and nearly 12 more to retire by 2035, will require significant funding. Capital budget would, therefore, have to be increased significantly.

The Way Ahead for the IAF

While the IAF has been modernising steadily, more needs to be done. The IAF must restore the authorised force levels of 42 squadrons. Some often question that since the Rafale and Su-30 MKI can achieve much greater effect than the older MiG-21s, why should the IAF continue to seek 42 squadrons. The argument is flawed. India’s adversaries are already having fifth generation fighters. They are not cutting down the numbers. The type of aircraft and weapon platforms must be comparable to the adversary’s. The IAF also urgently needs additional AEW&C and FRA and needs to invest more into combat UAVs. India has also to defend itself against a possible sizeable Chinese Surface-to-Surface Missile (SSM) attack. The IAF will need more air defence SAM systems of the S-400 and there is a need to accelerate inductions of larger numbers of indigenous air defence systems. It is important to have greater stocks of ammunition and missiles. SSMs and cruise missiles are going to be important. India has a good missile programme. The Prithvi, Agni, BrahMos, Akash and Astra missiles are a success and the development of newer variants must be hastened.

India needs to invest more in game-changer technologies. These include cyber and electronic warfare, artificial intelligence, unmanned systems, hypersonic, among others. Hypersonic flight and weapons will be difficult to engage. They will act as force multipliers against high-value targets. There is a lot of action in Directed Energy Weapons (DEW) and lasers that can burn incoming missile electronics or dazzle electro-optical sensors. For India to become a significant power, it must also master aircraft engine and AESA radar technologies. Joint venture route is the best to imbibe high-end technologies. We need very long range weapons, including aerial missiles with a range of around 400 kilometres. Similarly, air-launched cruise missiles with a 1,500-kilometre range need to be inducted.

There is a backlog of modernisation. The obsolescence sets in much faster for aerial systems. To stem the increasing gap with China, India perhaps needs to increase its defence allocations from the current 2.15 percent of GDP to around 2.5 percent. The IAF is well trained, operationally well-exposed and has the clear advantage in terms of the number of missions it can launch across the Himalayas. The IAF can well match the PLAAF, but once the numbers increase, the IAF will be much better placed. The time to act is now.

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