Ten years later, the forecast made in 2002 by the writer appears to be coming true-Editor.
War on Terrorism will zero in on Pakistan as the next battlefield on two counts. First, notwithstanding admiration in public by America for General Musharraf, the honeymoon is coming to an end. Second, the swift swing of the international mood to extreme right raises more questions on American support to the epicenter of terrorism, than Washington can answer.
The increasing worldwide shift towards the political right is an indication of eruption of major conflicts in the coming years. A tendency to replicate Le Pen of France in European countries is gathering unprecedented momentum. Outpourings of sentiments against the immigrant population in America and the EU are now routine occurrences despite the fact that growth of these economies is not sustainable without migration from outside.
The increasing worldwide shift towards the political right is an indication of eruption of major conflicts in the coming years.
The single factor that drives these liberal societies into a corner is extreme right confrontationist positions adopted by pan-Islamic terrorist outfits.These pan-Islamic ambitions translated themselves into a horrifying tangible symbol as Nine Eleven, which further boosted the mental insecurity.
India is no exception to this universal trend. The buzz of destructive pan-Islamic fervour in its extended neighbourhood in East, West and Central Asia is eroding the secular fabric slowly but surely. However, India’s success story as an emerging power is irrevocably tied to its liberal outlook.
Therefore, it is imperative for New Delhi to safeguard it as a vital ingredient that impacts directly on the nation’s security and well-being. Despite growing fundamentalism that surrounds us, historically, it is North India that has been invaded and plundered from the North West. Even today, induction of externally sponsored terrorism that causes havoc internally follows the same route.
It is true that deeply ingrained Indian civilizational parameters make us abhor war. That is a sane outlook. However, there comes a time in every nation’s life when the circumstances created by others, force one to challenge the adversary on his home turf. That time is now. Particularly in view of the fact that ample opportunity in Lahore and Agra were offered to Pakistan.
Since this is one bad dream which cannot be wished away, New Delhi sooner than later will be compelled to declare Pakistan as the next battleground on three counts.
Last but not the least, By 2015 urbanization of India will change the characteristics of the Indian Army. From a peasant army it will have become an urban-based army like that of the Americans
First, we cannot permit it to destruct our secular social harmony through external injection of Jihadi poison. Second, our history riddled as it is with invasions from the North West corridor throws up one simple lesson: India to prosper must physically secure its Western borders and ruthlessly extend the strategic frontiers to Central Asia.
Last but not the least, By 2015 urbanization of India will change the characteristics of the Indian Army. From a peasant army it will have become an urban-based army like that of the Americans. South Block must study this factor as American boots-on-the-ground from Vietnam to Shah-e-Kot could not deliver. Hence waging a war today is a saner bet on all counts.
Trust between Washington and Islamabad is on the decline. It is merely matter of time before the Bush Administration is inclined to declare Pakistan as the next battlefield too. While hunting Al Qaida members inside Pakistan territory, the truth stares American troops in their face. A fatal tactical blunder was committed in treating Pakistan and Afghanistan as two separate entities while launching a War on Terrorism. Underestimating the duplicity of the military-intelligence-mosque combine was another. They virtually represent different sides of the same coin. In gladden-thy-heart philosophy towards Musharraf, professional military tenets were overlooked.
The American war in Afghanistan that now shifts to Pakistan for these reasons is in a tailspin. In comparison, India and America not only have a commonality of purpose but also their military wherewithal complements each other.
Though Americans controlled the Afghanistan air space, they permitted evacuation by air from Kabul and Kandahar of all senior Pakistani army officers (whether in service or retired) bolstering the Taliban regime. In Tora Bora American troops should have launched an attack simultaneously from the West and the East (the Pakistani side) to disallow Al Qaida to escape into Pakistan. They did not. Also, the Pakistan Army specifically deployed on Afghan borders for this purpose, instead of capturing the retreating Taliban elements aided them to reach safe sanctuaries inside!
The American war in Afghanistan that now shifts to Pakistan for these reasons is in a tailspin. In comparison, India and America not only have a commonality of purpose but also their military wherewithal complements each other.
In declaring the military-intelligence-mosque nexus of Islamabad as the next battlefield, New Delhi and Washington can develop a rare synergy of purpose especially since terrorist threats are common to both – in days to come this will become a strategic necessity.
