The continuing war in Ukraine (and to some extent the Gaza War) plus heightening tensions in the Indo-Pacific, particularly in the South China Sea (SCS), is witnessing global realignments. China and Russia are seeking a new multi-polar world order. As US-NATO up the ante against Russia over Ukraine, the danger of escalation going beyond manageable threshold can hardly be ruled out. There is a perceptible rise in American accusations against China, including for helping Russia in Ukraine. But this is also because of US concerns, or rather panic, over the strides China is making in high-end technologies both for military and civil applications.
Of late, the ‘Quad’ and the ‘Squad’ has been the limelight. The Squad has the same grouping as Quad but with India replaced by the Philippines. On May 20, 2024, the External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said that the Quad alliance is working towards realizing its shared vision of a secure and prosperous Indo-Pacific and delivering in the field of clean energy, disaster relief and health security. Concurrently, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that the Quad has made important strides to advance a free and open Indo-Pacific, improved internet connectivity in the region, helped prevent cyber-attacks and invested in next-generation STEM leaders.
The rise of Chinese aggressiveness in the SCS, particularly against the Philippines, led the Philippines to join the US-Japan-Philippines trilateral in 2024, which held its first Leaders Summit in Washington on April 11, 2024. The Squad was thus born. Subsequently, US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin, on May 03, 2024, convened a meeting with his counterparts from Australia, Japan, and the Philippines emphasizing their collective commitment to advance collaboration to counter Chinese conduct of obstructing the Philippines’ freedom of navigation in the SCS.
Considering that both the Quad and Squad are for a free, open, secure and prosperous Indo-Pacific, the Philippines could have simply been added to the Quad. But that was not to be since the US has defence pacts with Australia, Japan and the Philippines, whereas India has not signed such a pact with Washington. But there was also another reason, in that joint statements of Quad summits could not directly indict China because of India. It is of little concern to the US that India is the only Quad member that shares a land border with China, which is unsettled and prone to Chinese hostility.
Squad is a military grouping which helps the US use Japan, the Philippines and Australia as fronts against China; itself not directly acting against China. The US will not target Chinese vessels taking increasingly hostile actions against the Philippines. Same was the case when Chinese vessels were firing lasers at foreign pilots flying in the region – as also from the Chinese base in Djibouti. It is this “rhetoric only” policy of the US that has helped China militarize the SCS, which Beijing continues to date.
The Quad appears relegated to the back burner. The last in-person Quad Leaders’ Summit (3rd such summit) was attended by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese of Australia, Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India, Prime Minister Kishida Fumio of Japan and President Joe Biden of the US on May 20, 2023 in Hiroshima (Japan), a city on which America dropped a nuclear bomb on August 6, 1945, followed by another nuclear bomb on Nagasaki three days later (August 9) despite Japan already flattened by persistent conventional bombings.
The 4th in-person Quad Leaders’ Summit planned in January 2024 concurrent to India’s 2024 Republic Day was sabotaged because Biden refused the Indian invite to be the Chief Guest at the 2024 Republic Day Parade. Efforts to reportedly convene the 4th such meeting before India’s general elections in 2024 also did not work out.
At the same time, the US finds merit in continuing with the Quad because: more the groupings against China, the better; keeping India in the loop helps ensures the India Navy keeps showing up in the SCS, access to vast Indian markets – both defence and civil; optimize the four ‘foundational agreements’ signed with India to US advantage (extracting strategic and economic benefits) in event of war in the Indo-Pacific, particularly an India-China war; keep provoking Beijing against India through seemingly innocuous actions like the recent US delegation led by Nancy Pelosi to meet the Dalai Lama and the Tibetan Government-in-Exile.
The US is well aware that the Dalai Lama has been publicly saying over the past several years that Tibet only wants autonomy from China, not freedom. On a visit to Arunachal Pradesh in August 2017 he said, “We are not seeking independence. We want China to give us meaningful autonomy. We want to remain with the People’s Republic of China.” For the repressive communist regime of China, naming the region Tibetan Autonomous Region (TAR) is good enough.China continues to speak with a forked tongue, saying it will talk only with representatives of the Dalai Lama and not with the officials of the Tibetan Government-in Exile based in Dharamshala (India), which it terms a “separatist” bloc.
But when was the US “really” interested in the well-being of the Tibetans in China? Why the Nancy Peloni-led delegation now? Was this timed with the mounting tensions between India and China and Chinese President Xi Jinping not even congratulating Narendra Modi for winning a third term as Prime Minister of India? Was the Pelosi-Dalaim Lama meeting meant to be a signal for Beijing that India is more into the US bloc?
In May 2024, Philip Green OAM, Australia’s High Commissioner to India, addressing an interactive event ‘Diplomat Diaries’, hosted by the Observer Research Foundation (ORF) New Delhi said that “it is very important” for Quad countries to “frame” their relations with China. Was this to convey India has not framed its relations with China in accordance with what the US wants? Also in May 2024, US Ambassador to India, Eric Garcetti visited ISRO headquarters and proposed a ‘Quad Satellite Project’. This, despite all Quad members having their satellites in space, largest constellation in space Elon Musk’s StarLink satellites, plus US-Australia and US-Japan defence pacts.
Notably, despite the US constantly monitoring Chinese movements, it didn’t warn India in 2020 of four motorized PLA divisions moving from Aksai Chin to eastern Ladakh. To top this, US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin visiting India in 2021 told media, “We didn’t even know India and China were so close to war.” India has also been left out from the access and process of the sonabuoy data from p-8 Poseidon surveillance aircraft
Concurrent to the recent visit of US NSA Jake Sullivan to India, Democratic Senators called for strong action against India for involvement in a foiled plot to assassinate Sikh extremist Gurpatwant Singh Pannun; the letter signed by five Senators demands accountability of the Biden Administration and a briefing on its engagement with the Indian government. That the US has been twisting the knife in India’s back is no secret, what with both America and its protégé Canada harbouring and “encouraging” Sikh separatists, including for attacking Indians and Indian assets in their countries.
Finally, the Quad and the Squad can be expected to function as before depending on the whims and fancies of Washington. But will America’s sincerity towards India improve instead of trying to destabilize India, George Soros et al, remains the all important question.
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