The Indian Prime Minister, Mr Narendra Modi on Dec 25, 2015 surprised all by a simple tweet. He said he was going to stop over at Lahore, to wish his Pakistani counterpart, Mr Nawaz Sharif a happy birthday.
Mr Modi has succeeded in highlighting Pakistan’s role in breeding terrorism at all the international forums far more effectively than all the efforts made in past.
Incidentally, Mr Sharif and India’s former Prime Minister Mr Atal Bihari share the same birthday. The two had tried to turn the destiny of our sub-continent in 1999, when Atal Bihari went to Lahore by bus. The peace bus that landed at Kargil, killing hundreds of soldiers on both the sides. A short localised war had nearly brought the two nations to a nuclear brink.
Indo-Pakistan relations are riddled by suspicion, animosity and hatred that arises out of religious intolerance and the scars of history. From General Ayub Khan in 60s till the last Pakistani ruler, all had suicidal dreams ranging from hoisting their flag on the Delhi’s Red Fort to bleeding India by a thousand cuts. Apart from the four wars fought by these neighbours, Pakistani perpetrated terrorist attacks on the Indian Parliament and Mumbai are a testimony to their acrimonious past.
Recently the Uffa agreement and subsequent failure of initiation of NSA level talks post Gurdaspur terror strike, brought the peace efforts to square one. The diplomatic stalemate appeared static. The opposition parties, media and the hard line fringe on both the sides emerged as spoilers and victorious. The environment was vitiated even before the first step was taken.
The secret NSA level talks at Bangkok followed by the Indian foreign minister, Mrs Sushma Swaraj’s visit to Pakistan to attend the Heart of Asia conference,signalled towards something positive in making.
The critiques asked the Mr Modi, what had changed between India and Pakistan that led to change of hearts. After all it was Modi who had said that the talks between the countries could not take place under the shadow of terror.
Treading the thin dangerous line carefully and doing a diplomatic coup by complete surprise, Mr Modi has played the master stroke.
But the fact of the matter is that lot has changed ever since the new government has taken charge. On the Line of Control, Pakistanis have been chastened by the ferocity of Indian response to their cease fire violations. Indians have managed to remove the Hurriyat from the spot light and literally rendered them hors-de-combat. Mr Modi has succeeded in highlighting Pakistan’s role in breeding terrorism at all the international forums far more effectively than all the efforts made in past.
But there are far more serious dynamics at work. Most importantly it is the Russian and Chinese geo-economic interest that are reshaping the geo politics in India- AfPak region. Russians are facing a western embargo on their oil and gas export to Europe post Ukraine crisis. This has impacted the Russian economy adversely. The Chinese economic slowdown and her desire to bridge the huge economic gap between its eastern and western provinces is a major challenge. The cost of transportation of goods and material from the eastern port to the western Chinese regions gets multiplied manifolds.
Huge hydro carbon reserves of Central Asian Republics (CAR) and vast mineral wealth of Afghanistan. Linking of the Mediterranean Sea to China by the energy and trade corridor running through Russia and the CAR along with development of Gawadar port and connecting the Arabian Sea to Kaxgar by a similar corridor signals towards growing geo-economic interest of major players in this part of the world.
China, the all-weather friend of Pakistan has the highest stakes in this region. This is followed by Russia who is also the strategic partner of India. Interestingly the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), which is a Eurasian, political, economic and military organisation is the order of the day. It has Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan as its members since 2001. On July 10, 2015, SCO admitted India and Pakistan as full members.
While India-Pakistan relations cannot improve overnight, the reach out must continue keeping herself ready with firm response should Pakistan falls out of line.
Russians drawing close to Pakistan and selling her arms at the cost of India’s discomfort should not come as a surprise. Peace in India-AfPak region is the foremost priority of these two Eurasian giants. Export of Russian and CAR oil and gas through the warm waters of Arabian Sea and import of minerals from Africa and other countries through this region makes a huge economic meaning to both.
Reducing American footprint in the heart of Asia and growing Russian and Chinese stature coupled with their geo-economic interest, a peaceful Indian subcontinent is an utmost priority.
The Indo-Pak relations thus should not be limited to the regular rhetoric and history. Effective Chinese and Russian influence over Pakistan and India, strong leadership in India, Pakistan’s military backing to Nawaz Sharif for the renewed peace dialogue are the strongest factors that can turn the course of fate of the people of this sub-continent. Treading the thin dangerous line carefully and doing a diplomatic coup by complete surprise, Mr Modi has played the master stroke.
While India Pakistan relations cannot improve overnight, the reach out must continue keeping herself ready with firm response should Pakistan falls out of line.