A comprehensive policy of development and security is what the region requires for ushering an atmosphere of peace and augmenting various policy objectives. In fact the twin approach surrounding development and security has been the ultimate policy for Indian State towards its NER until recently. With the rise of East and South East Asian nations in terms of the economic potential and prospects, India recognizes the geopolitical importance of the region as a whole. India now envisages utilizing this geographical proximity to fulfil its long lasting aspiration of becoming an influential regional power.
The recent reframing of the Look East Policy (LEP) to Act East Policy (AEP) shows the strategic vision that at present Indian State upholds towards the region.
In the contemporary era of neo-liberal globalization, India’s North-East Region bears a strategic weight that the policy makers and strategic community have long aspired for. The recent reframing of the Look East Policy (LEP) to Act East Policy (AEP) shows the strategic vision that at present Indian State upholds towards the region. Besides, with an improvement of security situation in the region, it has been appraised that an end of insurgencies and conflicts is near and that the region has been shaped towards a desired policy objective of peace and development.
While it is true that many of the armed conflicts have come to either negotiating table with the government of India or have been disbanded with the signing of peace accords; it is also true that challenges towards the envisaged peace and development are many and still pose as hindrance. Given such challenges what choices does North-East Region have?
An analysis of security situation of India’s North-East Region (NER) shows that New Delhi’s response towards combating armed conflicts in the region has been commendable. A multipronged strategy of intervention with a mix of military, political conciliation and development aid has resulted in lowering of violence and improving the overall security situation. It is true to say that the NER cannot be considered as a unified entity when it comes to represent insurgencies and ethnic conflicts. The nature of insurgencies and conflicts vary across theatres and actors.
However, an appraisal can be made considering the fact that many of the insurgent groups have come to the table of negotiation with the Government of India including the recently laid framework for peace agreement with NSCN (IM);the factional splits in the prominent insurgent organizations as well as with an existence of peace in Mizoram, Tripura and some parts of Arunachal Pradesh; that the region can come out of its image as conflict prone volatile zone. Besides, from the strategic dimension India took several initiatives to augment its ties with its neighbours to mitigate its security and other strategic interests in the region. The recent reframing of the Look East Policy (LEP) to Act East Policy (AEP) shows the strategic vision that at present Indian State upholds.
At the time when AFSPA is removed from Tripura, simultaneously, there are reports of violence and conflict that highlight the fact that some of the states like Assam, Manipur and Nagaland still retain the image of disturbed area.
Further, India invited to Japan to invest in the infrastructural sector of Arunachal Pradesh – the region which remains a disputed territory between India and China. Also, India’s continued efforts to remove the parameters of hostility from its neighbouring states in terms of the recent steps to resolve its border dispute with Bangladesh (the Agreement on Land Swap) including the joint counterinsurgency measures and security cooperation with Myanmar have all contributed in the present scenario of an improved security situation.
Now the emerging question is – does it really indicate towards the desired policy objective that the security concerns and the advocates of peace have long aspired for? Or is it a temporary lull? At the time when Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) is removed from Tripura, simultaneously, there are reports of violence and conflict that highlight the fact that some of the states like Assam, Manipur and Nagaland still retain the image of disturbed area.
The recent ambush in Manipur in the month of June, 2015 that left 20 Army men dead suggests the tendency and capability of the insurgent outfits to revive their fight against the Indian state. The ambush was carried out by an umbrella group named ‘United Liberation Front of Western South East Asia (UNLFW)’ consisting of five prominent insurgent outfits across the region. This shows nothing but a resurgence of insurgent activity in the region. An assessment of the deeper issues suggest that the existing challenges yet needs to be addressed or else could shatter the envisaged policy ambitions.
Challenges and Apprehensions
The above viewpoints indicate towards the existence of underlying challenges that become a matter of apprehension when one talks about the durability of the atmosphere of peace in the region. The grim of violence and occasional conflict have taken a form of vicious cycle claiming lives and destroying the very efforts to sustain a climate of peaceful co-existence. Besides, it is not only the insurgent related violence but also the violence on ethnic lines that have been a serious cause for concern. According to an RTI reply by the Union home ministry, in last four years, a total 614 people lost their lives, including 105 security personnel, in 3,493 militant attacks and extremist groups’ violence in the NER. Moreover, the data sheets compiled by South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP), the year 2014 has witnessed a rise in violence compared to previous years i.e. 2012 and 2013.The following table shows the trend of violence in the consecutive years.
It has become imperative for India to address its long persisting security issues in the region but the road to peace and security is troublesome as challenges continue to emerge and disrupt the envisaged policy initiatives. The challenges I would like to highlight in four major dimensions.
…the Maoist insurgency has been succeeding towards giving a pan-India shape of their movement as they enter the NER.
First to mention is the element of spoilers such as the Anti-Talk Factions. The factional splits in the insurgent organizations though seem to weaken the organizational structure as an outfit; it is nevertheless week as imagined. The split faction with new leaders and the capacity to recruit new members and the accessibility to sophisticated arms and ammunitions continue to contribute in deteriorating the environment of peace and derail the process of peace parlays in the region. For instance the antitank factions led by Paresh Baruah in case of United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA – I, ‘I’ stands for independent) and the National Democratic front of Bodo land (NDFB – S) led by IKS Songbijit in Assam are playing the role of spoilers.
Secondly, it is the rise of Maoist consolidation in the region. The recent reports indicate that there has been a genesis of Maoist consolidation in the region particularly in several districts of Assam and Arunachal Pradesh. In Assam, the Maoist cadres of CPI (Maoist) are operating under the umbrella of the organization named ‘Upper Assam Leading Committee’ (UALC).This shows that the Maoist insurgency has been succeeding towards giving a pan-India shape of their movement as they enter the NER.
Thirdly, the newly formed organization – UNLFW has posed a great challenge towards the anticipated conflict resolution goals especially the policy of negotiating insurgencies in the region that needs attention. The nature of negotiation which the Indian state pursues has not been promising as many of the armed groups still has not joined the on-going peace process. The negotiation technique does not involve all the rebel groups. It lacks participatory approach in the negotiation policy; which is why the accords and agreements had been confronted from time to time by the communities that remained isolated in the representation process. Having a multi-ethnic and multilingual social structure, the repercussions from such sceptical peace process are many.
As development cannot be ushered without the reinforcement of security, this has steered the Central Government to increase its expenditure on the security aspect in the region.
Fourthly, one of the promising policy measures in terms of development intervention that the Indian state has adopted under its Look East Policy also earned a wide range of criticism in terms of region’s share in the envisaged development achievements. Besides, the lopsided development projects have already a bearing upon environment, its local residents causing them towards displacement. Such displaced population often has the tendency to fall prey to communal or ethnic clashes. Many of the occasional conflicts surrounding ethnic lines are generated due to the limited accessibility to land, political space as well as insecurity to one’s identity and culture.
It is quite evident that resource extraction is necessary for the State considering the abundance of natural resource in the region, but to natives of the region it is source of their livelihood. This becomes another constraint for ushering development in the region. On the other hand, the politicization of development projects such as dam or the hydro power projects have created another dimension of social unrests in the form of civic protests. This again limits the development initiatives as it is generating conflict which ultimately hampers development.
As development cannot be ushered without the reinforcement of security, this has steered the Central Government to increase its expenditure on the security aspect in the region. To strengthen the police network, a total of Rs 812 crore was disbursed among the North-Eastern states in the last three years. The following table (collected from report of Ministry of Home Affairs) shows state wise details of assistance released to NE States under the Security Related Expenditure (SRE)scheme during the last ten years is as under:-
Thus, given the plethora of challenges, what choices does NER have? This brings here to mention the remaining segment of the present article that tries to suggest some of the possible measures towards addressing the aforesaid challenges.
Choices
The peace talks needs to include a third party in the form of an active civil society that represents the inclusiveness and not selectiveness.
A comprehensive policy of development and security is what the region requires for ushering an atmosphere of peace and augmenting various policy objectives. In fact the twin approach surrounding development and security has been the ultimate policy for Indian State towards its NER until recently. With the rise of East and South East Asian nations in terms of the economic potential and prospects, India recognizes the geopolitical importance of the region as a whole. India now envisages utilizing this geographical proximity to fulfil its long lasting aspiration of becoming an influential regional power. Besides the drivers of neo-liberalization and globalization urges India to take an entry in the club of global economic players. For which the need for development has become essential while reinforcement of security has become a part and parcel. Thus, in near future India cannot abandon this twin approach towards achieving its national interests in the region.
While talking about development, as the discourse has generated a number of negative aspects in terms of internal displacement, land alienation, environmental degradation including ethnic tension associated with such issues, needs to be addressed. The neo-liberal framework of development discourse needs to inculcate a discipline of participatory development in terms of humanizing the very nature of the development discourse in the region. The concept of what is termed as the inclusive growth and development has to be kept in mind while framing policy for development projects.
The peace talks needs to include a third party in the form of an active civil society that represents the inclusiveness and not selectiveness. The participation of civil society is necessary as it can fasten the on-going peace parlays. Also, the Indian state should actively invite and pursue all the insurgent outfits to come to join the political dialogue process. There’s no doubt that negotiation is one of the prominent means for conflict resolution but the strategy needs to overcome the procrastination and policy paradoxes.
India’s strategic vision demands the region to be free from all sorts of threat perceptions.
Concluding Remarks
Having an abundance of rich natural resources, the region has attracted the eyes of policy makers in the neoliberal era. India’s strategic vision demands the region to be free from all sorts of threat perceptions. The economic and security interest drives India to improve its internal security situation in the region and bolster ties through trade and commerce with the neighbouring nations. However, a successful outcome of foreign policy measure also depends upon the domestic situation in terms of peaceful and strong social order.
As development has become a new move for India to address its core issues surrounding armed conflicts and insurgencies, it is to be considered that the real fruits of development can be reaped only when both the domestic and foreign or regional policies support each other.
For NER, it is true to say that the internal security situation largely depends upon active cooperation from neighbouring states but it is also to be reinforced with a comprehensive internal security policy of addressing conflicts and insurgencies recognising the existing challenges and facing them accordingly. It is time to seek a resolution of conflict which is lasting and durable in the region which is possible once the underlying challenges are brought in the picture and dealt with effectiveness.