Can the Air Force develop a more affordable next-gen fighter jet than the F-35 ?

The U.S. Air Force faces a formidable challenge as it endeavors to develop a next-generation fighter jet that outperforms the F-35A while maintaining a lower price tag. This ambitious goal has sparked intense debate within military and aerospace circles, raising questions about the feasibility and potential trade-offs involved in creating a more affordable yet highly capable aircraft.

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Can Air Force Develop More Affordable Next Gen Fighter Jet Than F 35
Can the Air Force develop a more affordable next-gen fighter jet than the F-35 ? - © Indian Defence Review

Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall has set a bold target for the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program, aiming to produce a sixth-generation fighter at or below the cost of an F-35. This objective represents a significant shift in the Air Force’s approach to fighter development, as previous generations have typically seen increases in both capability and cost.

The NGAD program seeks to replace the aging F-22 Raptor fleet by the 2030s. However, initial cost estimates for the original NGAD concept came in at approximately three times the price of an F-35, prompting a pause in the contract award process and a comprehensive reevaluation of the program’s direction.

To achieve this ambitious pricing goal, the Air Force is exploring several strategies :

  • Redesigning the NGAD platform concept
  • Integrating autonomous drone wingmen (Collaborative Combat Aircraft)
  • Enhancing modularity for easier upgrades
  • Optimizing design elements that drive program costs

Challenges and skepticism

Despite the Air Force’s determination, many aerospace experts express skepticism about the feasibility of producing a next-generation fighter at F-35 prices. Heather Penney, a retired F-16 pilot and senior fellow at the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, warns that such cost-cutting measures could result in a watered-down aircraft that fails to meet the demands of future conflicts.

Key challenges facing the NGAD program include :

  1. Limited production scale compared to the F-35
  2. Absence of international sales to offset costs
  3. Advanced capabilities requiring significant investment
  4. The need for extended range and payload capacity

John Venable, another expert from the Mitchell Institute, points out that the F-35’s relatively lower cost benefits from economies of scale due to its multi-service and international adoption. In contrast, the NGAD is intended solely for the U.S. Air Force, with a projected fleet of only about 200 aircraft.

Balancing cost and capability

The Air Force must carefully navigate the trade-offs between affordability and performance. A table comparing key aspects of the F-35 and potential NGAD features illustrates the complexity of this challenge :

Feature F-35 Potential NGAD
Production scale 2,500+ (multi-service & international) ~200 (U.S. Air Force only)
Unit cost target $80-100 million At or below F-35 cost
Generation 5th 6th
Key capabilities Stealth, sensor fusion, multirole Advanced propulsion, AI integration, longer range

To achieve its goals, the Air Force is consulting with former chiefs of staff and exploring innovative approaches. These include integrating autonomous drones and advanced electronic warfare capabilities to enhance the NGAD platform’s effectiveness while potentially reducing per-unit costs.

Rethinking air superiority for future conflicts

As the Pentagon shifts its focus towards potential conflicts with near-peer adversaries like China, the Air Force is reevaluating its approach to achieving air superiority. This strategic pivot necessitates a fighter capable of operating over vast distances in the Pacific theater while carrying sufficient payload to pose a credible threat.

The NGAD program envisions a “family of systems” approach, incorporating :

  • A crewed sixth-generation fighter
  • Multiple autonomous drones (Collaborative Combat Aircraft)
  • Advanced sensors and weaponry
  • Cutting-edge “adaptive” engine technology

This holistic approach aims to distribute capabilities across multiple platforms, potentially allowing for cost savings on the primary fighter while maintaining overall mission effectiveness. However, critics argue that compromising on the core fighter’s capabilities could undermine the entire concept’s viability in high-intensity conflicts.

As the Air Force continues to refine its vision for the NGAD program, it must balance fiscal constraints with the imperative to maintain technological superiority. The success of this endeavor will have far-reaching implications for U.S. air power projection and the future of aerial combat. With the retirement of legacy aircraft like the KC-10 Extender, the pressure to field a cost-effective next-generation fighter becomes even more acute, underscoring the critical nature of the NGAD program’s success.

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