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Navneet Bhushan


Cost of National Defence Index (CNDI): Towards an Affordable and Commensurate Armed Forces for India

We define a new metric – the Cost of National Defence Index (CNDI). The Armed Forces Sizing Index (AFSI), proposed earlier showed the minimum of one soldier supporting and supported…

2009 Military Balance

India’s National Security Options in a Penta-Polar World – Scenario 2030

We claim that a penta-polar world is emerging. We also claim that, “To be there in 2030-2035, India needs to play out the penta-polar world dynamics through a multi-alignment strategy…

4 Values That The Dimension Can Take By 2030 Scenario 2030

Announcing the Penta-Polar World

India has been playing the power dynamics game without a long-term, consistent and constructed narrative or at least, there is not enough evidence of this being so. Secondly, India has…

19th–20th Century World Power Transition

Is the Indian Soldier Overloaded?: Right Sizing the Armed Forces

It is of interest that we have consistently maintained armed forces that give one soldier to support a population of about 900 persons. This gives us a metric or at…

Adgpi Indian Army

Synthetic Reality – The Sixth Wave of Innovation threat to National Security

“Everyone is a potential murderer. In everyone there arises from time to time the wish to kill – though not the will to kill”. – Hercule Poirot, in Agatha Christie’s,…

Army Navy Air Force Indian Soldier

Bio-warfare Attack Scenario on India – What should be our response?

Cyber and Biological warfare are potentially the most dangerous forms that have emerged as these have the important aspect of deniability built into their mechanisms. Ability to deny or obfuscate…

Caution Biowarfare

Defence for the 5 Trillion Indian Economy

The “challenging but realizable” desire/target/goal/ambition of India becoming a USD 5 trillion economy by 2024-25 from the existing USD 2.69 trillion economy, as articulated by our finance minister[i], is a…

Mica Meteor On Rafale

Responding to War and Warfare in the Sixth Wave of Innovation (2020-2045)

We are in a re-polarising world reflected in a strategic superpower competition between the US and China in an unfathomable cyberspace and digital-economy territory that will give rise to new…

Idr Cover Jul Sep 2019

War as a Multi-Dimensional Whole: A Framework for India in a Repolarizing World

As India celebrates the 19th anniversary of Vijay Diwas on 26th July – to mark our victory in Kargil war of 1999, there are much larger questions on Indian security,…

India In 15 D Warfare

DEADLY Targets of Multi-Dimensional Warfare

Jamal Khashoggi death in a fight in Saudi consulate in Istanbul as claimed by Saudi public prosecutor surfaces a new set of criteria of “targeting” in the multi-dimensional warfare that…

Battle Management System Indian Army

IAF Exercise Gagan Shakti 2018 –Simple Attrition Estimates

The Indian Air Force Conducted its recent Exercise Gagan Shakti 2018 in April 2018. It was an exercise to learn meaningful lessons in a short and intense battle scenario. According…

Lca Tejas Gaganshakti Ex 2

Triad vs Quad – Indian Geopolitical Options as a Twin vertex

In the year 2017, India suddenly found itself as a peculiar cog in the emerging superpower rivalry between rising and aggressive China’s deep designs as reflected in BRI (Belt and…

Pak China Railway Cpec 300x290

Brahmos on Su30MKI – Towards an Indian CPRS Capability

With the unique demonstration by test-firing Brahmos from Su30MKI aircraft, India has started its unique baby steps towards indicating what I called Conventional Prompt Regional Strike (CPRS) Capability. Can IAF…

Brahmos Su30mki Test

Factors Affecting India’s National Security

How to Evaluate National Security? The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was developed by Thomas L. Saaty during the 70s in the US Arms Control and Disarmament Agency after getting repeatedly…

Factors National Security 1

General’s Intelligence Vs Artificial Intelligence – Can Military Strategy become an Algorithm?

(Around late 1997 after Kasparovs loss, Dr. N.K.Jaiswal, ex- Director ISSA, DRDO, proposed that we should write an article on when war will be conducted by computers instead of Generals.…

Artificial Intelligence

A Nuclear Command and Control System for India

  The recent missile tests have brought to the fore, once again the talks on south Asian nuclear arms race and scenarios. It is imperative to understand that mere capability…

Agni 5

Pakistan’s Nuclear Arsenal – The Babur-Nasr are Quick First Use, Not Second Strike

The report of a successful test of a submarine launched cruise missile, Babur III, by Pakistan claims achievement of second strike capability by Pakistan. It is unambiguously clear that Pakistan’s…

Nasr Missile

Agni-5: A True Game Changer

Agni-5 with its higher payload and MIRV capability – with high accuracies – does give India a counter force capability. This is definitely a higher order message to potential adversaries.…

Agni 5 Canister Base

Winning the Asymmetric Wars: Matrix of Instruments of War

Using Ivan Arreguin Toft’s hypothesis of strategic interaction proposed and studied on a sample of asymmetric conflicts since year 1800,in “How the weak win wars – a theory of asymmetric conflict”, Ihave…

Instruments Of War Matrix

Can India Create the Next Revolution in Military Affairs?

We have a window of opportunity for next 25 years when the young population percentage world over will be maximum in India. Further, our ability to understand the language of…

Army Navy Air Force Indian Soldier

Winning the Asymmetric Wars – A need for Rapid Strategic Switching

Of the 43 asymmetric wars in the period 1950-1999, 51.2% wars have been won by the weaker actor. That the powerful will lose sometimes is in the nature of warfare,…

Indian Army Troops Guarding Borders

LCA Tejas role for IAF – View from a simple sortie rate model

Role of Indian Air Force (IAF) in so-called Cold Start Doctrine (CSD) One extremely important role for Indian Air Force (IAF) will be the Close Air Support (CAS) to Indian…

Hal Tejas5

Measuring Risk – Pakistani Nukes Escaping to “Funny Fellows”

In 1998 after the Pakistani nuclear tests, the estimates were that Pakistan may possess and have the fissile material for about 20 Nuclear warheads with a potential yield of 20-30…

Map Pakistan Nuclear Facili

China takes Pakistan: A Scenario by 2017-2022

Since year 2011, I have been painting a scenario where in China will get deeper and deeper into Pakistan. For many decades China has been the “thick” friend of Pakistan…

Xi Jinping Nawaz Sharif

Needed: Ministry of Intelligence, Foresight and Design (MIFD)

I have heard this saying, “one who can master time masters everything.” How do you master time? Obviously one cannot stop time. Or at least, as yet we do not…

Intelligence

Its War – And India has to fight it as such

{The following article I wrote in December 2014 after the Gurdaspur attack} The house where Gunner Manpreet Singh was born near the border town of Gurdaspur in Punjab is called…

Pathankot Terror Attack

IAF in the age of Unmanned, Hyper-sonic, Intelligent, Stealthy, and CPGS world

We would like to wish the Indian Air Force (IAF) a very happy birthday – the IAF was born in 1932 on 8th October – a good 15 years before…

Iaf Helicopter Aero India 2

The Chinese Twin Silk Roads – Can India shake off its lethargy?

If you have to see the future, look at the map of the future. Or better why not draw the map yourself. If you are the most populous, recently turned…

Silk Route Map