
Navneet Bhushan
Cost of National Defence Index (CNDI): Towards an Affordable and Commensurate Armed Forces for India
We define a new metric – the Cost of National Defence Index (CNDI). The Armed Forces Sizing Index (AFSI), proposed earlier showed the minimum of one soldier supporting and supported…

India’s National Security Options in a Penta-Polar World – Scenario 2030
We claim that a penta-polar world is emerging. We also claim that, “To be there in 2030-2035, India needs to play out the penta-polar world dynamics through a multi-alignment strategy…

Announcing the Penta-Polar World
India has been playing the power dynamics game without a long-term, consistent and constructed narrative or at least, there is not enough evidence of this being so. Secondly, India has…
Is the Indian Soldier Overloaded?: Right Sizing the Armed Forces
It is of interest that we have consistently maintained armed forces that give one soldier to support a population of about 900 persons. This gives us a metric or at…
Synthetic Reality – The Sixth Wave of Innovation threat to National Security
“Everyone is a potential murderer. In everyone there arises from time to time the wish to kill – though not the will to kill”. – Hercule Poirot, in Agatha Christie’s,…
Bio-warfare Attack Scenario on India – What should be our response?
Cyber and Biological warfare are potentially the most dangerous forms that have emerged as these have the important aspect of deniability built into their mechanisms. Ability to deny or obfuscate…
Defence for the 5 Trillion Indian Economy
The “challenging but realizable” desire/target/goal/ambition of India becoming a USD 5 trillion economy by 2024-25 from the existing USD 2.69 trillion economy, as articulated by our finance minister[i], is a…
Responding to War and Warfare in the Sixth Wave of Innovation (2020-2045)
We are in a re-polarising world reflected in a strategic superpower competition between the US and China in an unfathomable cyberspace and digital-economy territory that will give rise to new…
War as a Multi-Dimensional Whole: A Framework for India in a Repolarizing World
As India celebrates the 19th anniversary of Vijay Diwas on 26th July – to mark our victory in Kargil war of 1999, there are much larger questions on Indian security,…
DEADLY Targets of Multi-Dimensional Warfare
Jamal Khashoggi death in a fight in Saudi consulate in Istanbul as claimed by Saudi public prosecutor surfaces a new set of criteria of “targeting” in the multi-dimensional warfare that…
IAF Exercise Gagan Shakti 2018 –Simple Attrition Estimates
The Indian Air Force Conducted its recent Exercise Gagan Shakti 2018 in April 2018. It was an exercise to learn meaningful lessons in a short and intense battle scenario. According…
Triad vs Quad – Indian Geopolitical Options as a Twin vertex
In the year 2017, India suddenly found itself as a peculiar cog in the emerging superpower rivalry between rising and aggressive China’s deep designs as reflected in BRI (Belt and…
Brahmos on Su30MKI – Towards an Indian CPRS Capability
With the unique demonstration by test-firing Brahmos from Su30MKI aircraft, India has started its unique baby steps towards indicating what I called Conventional Prompt Regional Strike (CPRS) Capability. Can IAF…
Factors Affecting India’s National Security
How to Evaluate National Security? The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was developed by Thomas L. Saaty during the 70s in the US Arms Control and Disarmament Agency after getting repeatedly…
General’s Intelligence Vs Artificial Intelligence – Can Military Strategy become an Algorithm?
(Around late 1997 after Kasparovs loss, Dr. N.K.Jaiswal, ex- Director ISSA, DRDO, proposed that we should write an article on when war will be conducted by computers instead of Generals.…
A Nuclear Command and Control System for India
The recent missile tests have brought to the fore, once again the talks on south Asian nuclear arms race and scenarios. It is imperative to understand that mere capability…
Pakistan’s Nuclear Arsenal – The Babur-Nasr are Quick First Use, Not Second Strike
The report of a successful test of a submarine launched cruise missile, Babur III, by Pakistan claims achievement of second strike capability by Pakistan. It is unambiguously clear that Pakistan’s…
Agni-5: A True Game Changer
Agni-5 with its higher payload and MIRV capability – with high accuracies – does give India a counter force capability. This is definitely a higher order message to potential adversaries.…
Winning the Asymmetric Wars: Matrix of Instruments of War
Using Ivan Arreguin Toft’s hypothesis of strategic interaction proposed and studied on a sample of asymmetric conflicts since year 1800,in “How the weak win wars – a theory of asymmetric conflict”, Ihave…
Can India Create the Next Revolution in Military Affairs?
We have a window of opportunity for next 25 years when the young population percentage world over will be maximum in India. Further, our ability to understand the language of…
Winning the Asymmetric Wars – A need for Rapid Strategic Switching
Of the 43 asymmetric wars in the period 1950-1999, 51.2% wars have been won by the weaker actor. That the powerful will lose sometimes is in the nature of warfare,…
LCA Tejas role for IAF – View from a simple sortie rate model
Role of Indian Air Force (IAF) in so-called Cold Start Doctrine (CSD) One extremely important role for Indian Air Force (IAF) will be the Close Air Support (CAS) to Indian…
Measuring Risk – Pakistani Nukes Escaping to “Funny Fellows”
In 1998 after the Pakistani nuclear tests, the estimates were that Pakistan may possess and have the fissile material for about 20 Nuclear warheads with a potential yield of 20-30…
China takes Pakistan: A Scenario by 2017-2022
Since year 2011, I have been painting a scenario where in China will get deeper and deeper into Pakistan. For many decades China has been the “thick” friend of Pakistan…
Needed: Ministry of Intelligence, Foresight and Design (MIFD)
I have heard this saying, “one who can master time masters everything.” How do you master time? Obviously one cannot stop time. Or at least, as yet we do not…
Its War – And India has to fight it as such
{The following article I wrote in December 2014 after the Gurdaspur attack} The house where Gunner Manpreet Singh was born near the border town of Gurdaspur in Punjab is called…
IAF in the age of Unmanned, Hyper-sonic, Intelligent, Stealthy, and CPGS world
We would like to wish the Indian Air Force (IAF) a very happy birthday – the IAF was born in 1932 on 8th October – a good 15 years before…
The Chinese Twin Silk Roads – Can India shake off its lethargy?
If you have to see the future, look at the map of the future. Or better why not draw the map yourself. If you are the most populous, recently turned…