In a recent article titled ‘China and Its Neighbors: A Delicate Balance - Understanding Chinese behavior from the Pacific to the Himalayas’ by Liu Xuejun and Liu Jun, two Yunnan based Chinese professors wrote, “For decades, China had long been boastful of its special relations with the junta-ruled Myanmar, but the paukphaw (“brotherhood”) began to erode with the advent of Myanmaar’s democratization process in recent years, as when several of China’s massive projects in Myanmar were suspended by Myanmar’s democratic elected government. Now , with the leader of the ruling National League for Democracy Aung San Suu Kyi sitting above the president, Myanmar maneuvers between China and America, creating uncertainties in the future development of China-Myanmar relations”. What the Liu duo did not elaborate is that the CPC bonds best with dictatorial regimes, like North Korea and Pakistan, not democratic governments; Pakistan under the dictatorship of its ‘deep state’ – the military.
Much before the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor was conceived, China wanted similar access through Myanmar to the Indian Ocean to advance her strategic interests and cater for her energy requirements. This included establishing presence in Myanmar’s Kyaukpyu Port on the Bay of Bengal, from which it would build energy pipelines to southern China. China also introduced the Myitsone Dam project for establishing foothold in Myanmar’s Irrawaddy River. Access to the Indian Ocean via Myanmar including the Irrawaddy River would give China two advantages: trade with Middle East and Europe through shorter sea wrote avoiding China’s ‘Malacca Dilemma’; draw Myanmar into China’s gravitational pull, weaning it away from India, and; pose challenge to India in the Indian Ocean, particularly in the Bay of Bengal. China’s planned investment in the Myitsone Dam was US$3.6 billion and began in 2009. But Myanmar stopped further construction in 2011, perhaps due to China’s total disregard to environment in constructing this dam, in addition to her obdurate behavior in dealing with Myanmar as a ‘client’ state. China did complete the oil and gas pipeline from Kyaukpyu to Southern China by early 2014 but many other Chinese projects have been put on hold.
Not that China has given up on the Myitsone Dam; China has warned Myanmar it will have to pay $800 million to China as compensation if the project is suspended, in addition to paying $50 million yearly interest for each year the project remains in limbo. Of course China has not clarified how she will realize such payments from Myanmar, considering that she herself is loath to international justice, given her illegal advances in Western Pacific and disregard to recent ruling by the Hague-based Permanent Court of Arbitration in favour of Philippines. But then China, with her long history of ambiguity and deceit has also surreptitiously invested over the years in creating force multipliers for maneuvering Myanmar for furthering of her own national interests. So China has created credible irregular proxies for coercive muscle flexing.
It is not only the arms and finances that China has been providing to the Kachin rebels in northern Myanmar. It is the United State Wa Army (USWA) that China has created as its most formidable and deadly proxy. The USWA straddle the ‘Golden Triangle’ in Shan Province – lording over large swath of territory along Myanmar’s northeastern border with China. The USWA are some 20,000 strong who employ child soldiers as well with ever household forced to contribute at least one youth / child for its rank and file. The Wa tribe are all Buddhists but the USWA core came from the erstwhile Communist Party of Burma (CPB), which was spawned by China’s Ministry of Foreign Liaison set up in Mao Tse Tung’s time, along with other such Maoist groups like in Nepal, Philippines, Cambodia, Peru, as also the Japanese Red Army. China has armed USWA with armored vehicles, machine guns, shoulder fired missiles, FN-6 portable air defence systems, howitzers and even missile fitted armed helicopters. The USWA is actually an extension of the PLA, and it would not be surprising if PLA cadres are covertly part of USWA, maybe even operating the armed helicopters.
Violent clashes between armed ethnic rebel groups and Myanmar’s military caused turmoil near the China-Myanmar border during 2015, with tens of thousands of refugees (estimated between 30,000 and 100,000) crossed from Myanmar into China to escape the violence. In March 2015, an air strike by the Myanmar Air Force accidentally killed five Chinese in China’s Yunnan province, and China dispatched jets to the border to “track, monitor, warn and chase away” Myanmar fighter planes. Myanmar apologized later for the incident. Suu Kyi’s recent visit to China, Myanmar-China relations have thawed and Suu Kyi is engaging the various armed groups through talks, but the fact remains that China holds the key to Myanmar’s internal stability through the proxies she has created – much better armed and powerful than any other terrorist organization in South Asia.
China remains Myanmar’s largest investor and trading partner and wields significant influence over ethnic armed groups along the border but China’s use of proxies dooes not bode well for Myanmar. Myanmar-China strategic and security consultation have also been taking place but this would hardly cover the hidden strategic agenda of the PLA. Chinese indulgence in establishing the United Liberation Front of West, South, East Asia in Myanmar during 2015 combining nine major militant groups of northeast India including the NDSN (K) and ULFA doesn’t bode well either for Myanmar and India, even as Myanmar supports China’s ambitious One Belt and One Road (OBOR) connectivity initiative along the ancient Silk Road, a s also the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar (BCIM) economic corridor meant to industrialize a stretch spanning more than 2,000-km. What China needs to acknowledge is that Suu Kyi is no pushover, US President Barak Obama’s visit to Myanmar in 2012 and Chinese President Xi Jinping’s coaxing and hedging strategy notwithstanding. China views leadership of the target country as an important centre of gravity and is known to use her financial prowess to buy them off. But Myanmar is not a country like Pakistan whose hierarchy sold the country’s sovereignty in exchange to pocketing millions of dollars.